基于任务需要的海警大型舰艇基本需求建模与分析

以线性和非线性需求结合方式建立了以满足任务需要为条件的海警大型舰艇基本需求组合模型,预测计算了多个样本国海警大型舰艇基本需求数,结果表明该模型有一定的实用性.据此对中国海警大型舰艇基本需求进行预测,预测结果可对中国海警大型舰艇发展规划提供参考.     

桩基建模方法对自升式钻井平台动力响应的影响

随着海洋油气开采作业水深的不断增加,海洋平台固有频率随之降低,易与相同频率成分的波浪产生共振,因此对平台动力响应特性研究是非常有必要的,而桩基模型在平台动力响应分析中发挥着关键作用。以某400英尺自升式钻井平台研究对象,基于等效建模的思想,分别建立了固支桩基、铰接桩基、线性弹簧桩基及非线性弹簧桩基四种有限元模型,并对其进行静力分析、模态分析及瞬态动力学分析,通过对比得到的振动频率、动力放大因子及波流惯性力,得出弹簧桩基模型在平台动力响应分析中的有效性及合理性结论。     

Heteroscedastic Gaussian processes for uncertainty modeling in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data

Accurately modeling traffic speeds is a fundamental part of efficient intelligent transportation systems. Nowadays, with the widespread deployment of GPS-enabled devices, it has become possible to crowdsource the collection of speed information to road users (e.g. through mobile applications or dedicated in-vehicle devices). Despite its rather wide spatial coverage, crowdsourced speed data also brings very important challenges, such as the highly variable measurement noise in the data due to a variety of driving behaviors and sample sizes. When not properly accounted for, this noise can severely compromise any application that relies on accurate traffic data. In this article, we propose the use of heteroscedastic Gaussian processes (HGP) to model the time-varying uncertainty in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data. Furthermore, we develop a HGP conditioned on sample size and traffic regime (SSRC-HGP), which makes use of sample size information (probe vehicles per minute) as well as previous observed speeds, in order to more accurately model the uncertainty in observed speeds. Using 6 months of crowdsourced traffic data from Copenhagen, we empirically show that the proposed heteroscedastic models produce significantly better predictive distributions when compared to current state-of-the-art methods for both speed imputation and short-term forecasting tasks.     

Closed-form multiclass cell transmission model enhanced with overtaking,lane-changing,and first-in first-out properties

A novel multiclass macroscopic model is proposed in this article. In order to enhance first-in, first-out property (FIFO) and transmission function in the multiclass traffic modeling, a new multiclass cell transmission model with FIFO property (herein called FM-CTM) is extended from its prior multiclass cell transmission model (M-CTM). Also, to enhance its analytical compactness and resultant computational convenience, FM-CTM is formulated in this paper as a set of closed-form matrix equations. The objective is to improve the accuracy of traffic state estimation by enforcing FIFO property when a fast vehicle cannot overtake a slow vehicle due to a limitation of a single-lane road. Moreover, the proposed model takes into account a different priority for vehicles of each class to move forward through congested road conditions, and that makes the flow calculation independent from their free-flow speeds. Some hypothetical and real-world freeway networks with a constant or varying number of lanes are selected to verify FM-CTM by comparing with M-CTM and the conventional CTM. Observed densities of VISSIM and real-world dataset of I-80 are selected to compare with the simulated densities from the three CTMs. The numerical results show that FM-CTM outperforms the other two models by 15% of accuracy measures in most cases. Therefore, the proposed model is expected to be well applicable to the road network with a mixed traffic and varying number of lanes.     

大型豪华邮轮结构设计的难点及对策分析

简述了大型豪华邮轮的结构特点,介绍了大型豪华邮轮的特殊要求,指出了结构设计中存在的困难和问题,研究了解决困难的对策和方法,对于大型豪华邮轮的结构设计,关键在于特定结构设计水平的提升,薄板加工焊接变形的控制,振动和噪声的预防,结构细节的处理,结构与设施的协调等。     

基于粗糙-模糊软计算的船板线加热成形加工参数预报方法

提出一种基于粗糙-模糊软计算的建模方法,构造一种基于贴近方向修正的高精度模糊推理算法,通过有限元分析(FEA)建立板材线加热成形工艺信息系统,根据粗糙集软计算获取线加热成形的工艺规律,运用模糊推理实现加工参数的快速准确预报。粗糙-模糊建模适用于线加热成形过程的静态或动态模型的构建,为实现该工艺的智能建模与控制提供一种新的技术手段。     

A model for the visualization and analysis of elevator traffic

ABSTRACT

Analysis of elevator traffic in high rise buildings is critical to the performance evaluation of elevator group control systems (EGCS). Elevator dispatching methods or parking algorithms in an EGCS can be designed or modified according to analyses of traffic flow. However, interpretation of traffic flow based solely on numerical data may not be explicit and transparent for EGCS experts as well as for other non-expert building administration. In this study, we present a model for visualization and analysis of elevator traffic. First, we present an alternative approach for traffic analysis which we call route visualization. In the proposed approach, we initially decompose elevator traffic into its component parts and investigate each component independently. Then, using superposition of components we obtain a reconstructed model of overall traffic. This modeling approach provides component-based traffic analysis and representation of routes with intensities through data visualization. In the second part we introduce a multi-dimensional analysis of time parameters in ECGS. This approach provides a comparative analysis of several control algorithms such as dispatch or park algorithms for different combinations of traffic components.     

The Bid-rent Land Use Model of the simple,efficient, elegant,and effective model of land use and transportation

Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. The financial, time, and staff requirements to develop these models has put them beyond the reach of most small to medium sized urban areas. This paper presents the land use allocation submodel of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective model of land use and transportation (SE³M), an integrated land use and transportation forecasting model founded upon Economic Base Theory and Bid-rent Theory. The Bid-rent Land Use Model (BLUM) is an agent based, spatial competition model utilizing unique utility curves for willingness to pay and incomes for budget constrained abilities to pay for each agent. The model structure, estimation, calibration, implementation, and validation are presented. With a single year of land use data available, the validation approach used the Kappa Index of Agreement to spatially check model outputs against base year control data while controlling for agreement by chance. The U.S. territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. Once calibrated, BLUM could solve the spatial competition problem on Guam in less than two minutes of processing time with over 90% accuracy.     

Simulating ad-hoc demand-responsive transportation: a comparison of three approaches

Transport models are used to evaluate new infrastructure and public transport services, varied levels of demand, and new ideas for demand management. Exploring these proposals virtually is easier than implementation and testing in situ. However, existing models are based around traditional forms of transportation. As part of a feature analysis using a case study approach, three different simulation packages (a simple custom-developed package, traffic microsimulation, and agent-based simulation) are used to develop and demonstrate simulations of demand-responsive transportation (DRT) and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each simulation approach for evaluating DRT. While the simulations display some relational replication (meaning they produce similar relational patterns with respect to certain variables), they do not show distributional replication (that is, the value of the results is not statistically similar), meaning that under- or over-estimation of predicted travel could occur. Recommendations for the application of each modeling approach are made.     

冰载荷下的船舶运动建模

随着极地航道的开辟以及极地海洋能源开发的需要,海冰与船体的相互作用以及极地船舶航行与作业安全越来越受到关注。本文主要针对破冰过程的几个典型阶段,对冰载荷对船舶的作用力进行了分析与计算,并考察了破冰船在不同的海冰密集度、冰厚以及船舶不同航速情况下的不同影响。